Forecasting the Future

This page discusses predictions of the future as the basis for developing action plans to imeplement strategies.

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“The illiterate of the future are not those who cannot read or write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn, and relearn.” —Alvin Toffler (Futurist).

“In the field of observation, chance favors the prepared mind,” —Louis Pasteur.

“I'm not afraid of tomorrow, for I have seen yesterday and I love today.” —William Allen White

Everyone can be —needs to be a Futurist.

• When you buy something, you have a good sense of how valuable and reliable that item will be to you over its useful life — the product's life cycle and the Total Cost of Ownership.

• When you leave your home for a trip, you know the weather and road conditions of the routes you might take.

• When you select an occupation, take a job prospect, follow a leader, or form a relationship, you understand what you're getting yourself into — what might happen and the benefits and drawbacks.

• You know the possible consequences.

  The difference is whether you choose to capitalize on your knowledge and instincts.

Instant Predictions On Your Future! Ask the Prognosticator!

David O'Tousa's giant artificial intelligence programming now can accurately answer your every question about the future! Type your question below, then press the grey box. Your answer appears on the left.

“As for the person who turns to mediums and to spiritists, to play the harlot after them, I will also set My face against that person and will cut him off from among his people” —Leviticus 20:6

Categories of Future Thinking

The Futurist has found it helpful to separate our thinking about the future into three categories of future thinking:

What is Possible?

This question is in the realm of Fiction Writers who entertain us by proposing what might be, no matter how unlikely. Examples from genres of fiction are:
• travel faster than the speed of light,
• human-like robots, cloning of humans,
• cures and faith-healings for deadly diseases,
• cheap non-polluting sources of energy,
• nuclear world war,
• world-wide famines,
• a dictator of the world antichrist,
• mass invasions of aliens from outer space,
• legalization of animal sacrifices,
• demons and
• giant comets hitting the earth,
• dead people coming back alive from an afterlife and endless other story lines imagined in movies, books, and television series such as the X-Files. A lot of people are getting rich dreaming this stuff up.

  Anything is possible. "Truth is often stranger than fiction."

  Exercise: What if some of these somehow become a reality?
  What are the Wild Cards which might significantly affect life in the future?

Deo volente is a Latin phrase which means “If God is willing.”

“If it is the Lord's will, we will live and do this or that.” —James 4:15

Have I not commanded you? Be strong and courageous. Do not be terrified, do not be discouraged, for the Lord your God will be with you wherever you go. —Joshua 1:9

“To Stay Ahead, you must have your next idea waiting in the wings.” —Rosabeth Moss Kanter

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Rosalene Glickman's Optimal Thinking.com provides a community for "optimal thinkers"

Eileen McDargh, a top motivational speaker, weaves wit and humor into her message of "Life by Design, Not by Default"

Jim McCormick on taking risks

Paradigms

Joel Barker popularized the concept of "Paradigms" — when each new major innovation COMPLETELY changes the assummed rules applicable in an earlier generation of technology. New technologies create not just a new ball game, but a different game altogether. Examples from history:

• Printing presses changed who could read and sparked the Age of Rennaisance.
• Electricity changed what could be made and fueled the Industrial Revolution.
• Railroads changed the distance people could travel and conquered the Western frontier.
• Airplanes changed the way war is waged, made castles obsolete.
• Automobiles changed the mobility of the entire population and created a flexible workforce.
• Telephones and faxes changed the way business is conducted.
• The Internet is changing how one gets value from knowledge. It is making assigned desks in an office obsolete.

• What will wireless make obsolete?
• What will Multimedia make obsolete?
• What will utility deregulation make obsolete?

Exercise 1: Ideal Lifestyle. If you win or inherit $10 million dollars right now, what would your do with it? Where would you like to travel or live? What would you like to do there? Who would you want to be with?

What is Probable?

This question is in the realm of Forecasters who measure existing trends and extrapolate statistics to calculate likely future conditions.

Age Wave

An example of forecasting is finding out (from census studies) that the median age of a population in the United States is about 35 today, then predicting a much older population of about 42 in the year 2020. One author named this trend the "Age Wave". Among the trends identified by Futurist Faith Popcorn is the term "AtmosFear" — for society's fear of the basic necessities of life such as air, water, and food.

Exercise 2: Projected Lifestyle. Given what you already have now and what you can do, what is the most likely course your life will take in the next 5 years? Where would you likely be living over time? What would you be or do over time? Who will you be with?

Our task as a Forecaster is to make provision (budget) for possibilities that might happen while preparing for what is probable.

William Strauss and Neil Howe categorize generations into 4 Archetypes:

Born	Cur.Age	Nickname	Archetype
1904-1924	75+	G.I.	-	Born during a crisis; they are a meek and mild generation who are sensitive to other's needs and are indecisive as leaders.
1925-1942	60-74	Silent / Elders	A prophet	Born in a civilization high of springtime. They are inwardly focused on spiritual values. They rebel in youth, but become morally authoritarian in old age during a crisis.
1946-1960	41-59	Boomers	- A nomad	Born in a summer of consciousness revolution and aren't raised very well since their elder parents are more focused on themselves than their children. This generation is considered a lost or bad generation in which crime and immorality increase with its rising.
1965-1983	22-40	Busters / Gen-Xers (13th)	A hero	Born in the fall of an unraveling; they become the heroes during a crisis when they are young adults.
1984-2002	18-21	Millenials / Mosaics	artist	Born during a crisis; they are a meek and mild generation who are sensitive to other's needs and are indecisive as leaders.

The authors also found that opportunities and trends follow a predictable course based on how the generations lined up during their aging process, much like seasons of the year:

• In Spring, there is a civilizational high of good behavior, peace, and prosperity but also stultifying conformity and spiritual deadness. Our last Spring was late 40s to late 60s, where institutions are erected and high morals characterize society.

• In Summer, there is a consciousness revolution, in which the younger generation rebels against their elders and their institutions. Our last Summer was late 60s to early 80s, an inwardly focused time of turmoil where morals and institutions are questions and razed.

• In Fall, there is an unraveling in which people turn inwards and focus on their private satisfactions and let public institutions and the community values fall into neglect. Our last Autumn was early 80s to early 2000s, a season of unraveling, where society begins to accept the new ideology.

• In Winter, there is a crisis of usually war or economic depression that forces everyone to become more communal and morally strict again.

The Scientific Method


1. Purpose
2. Hypothesis
3. Experiment
4. Data
5. Conclusions

Science Fiction Novels

Novels set in the future are categorized as "science fiction".

George Orwell's 1984 (written in 1949) is the quintessential novel about living in a future made bleak by state control made possible by technology. [listen to it on CD] Analyze it with the Bloom's guide or Cliff's Notes.

"Rainbow's End" by Vernor Vinge (a math and computer science professor from the University of California at San Diego) imagines how technology will change and impact society over the coming years as science fiction novel about a man who wakes up after a 20 year fog in 2025, and adjusting to ubiquitious computing and the state control that enables. Vinge is a Hugo Award winner for his 1993 sci-fi classic "A Fire Upon The Deep".

As Future Shock did in the 1970s and Megatrends did in the 1980s, ex-Capitol Hill aides William Strauss and Neil Howe of the LifeCourse Associates network analyzed the nature of each generation's collective personality and then developed their LifeCourse Method to help managers and marketers leverage quantitative data in new and remarkable ways.

Their first booK: $17 Generations: The History of America's Future, 1584 to 2069 (William Morrow: September 30, 1992) identifies how a four-stage historical cycle repeats throughout recorded time, starting on a high note and ending in hardship.

$10 13th Gen: Abort, Retry, Ignore, Fail? (Vintage; March 23, 1993) with illustrator R.J. Matson and Ian Williams. explainS the pragmatic attitude and unduly negative reputation of Gen-Xers born between 1961 and 1981, which the authors call "13ers" because they are the thirteenth generation to know the American flag and nation. This book shows how their "location in history" (Xers were, in fact, the real "children of the Consciousness Revolution")

$15 Millennials Rising : The Next Great Generation (Vintage: September 5, 2000) Each generation has its own memories, language, habits, beliefs, and life lessons.

Their website FourthTurning is based on their book: $12 Fourth Turning in paperback and audio cassette. They see American history as a series of recurring 80- to 100-year cycles.

What is Preferred?

This question is in the realm of Strategists who explore possible and probable futures to develop a realistic vision for the kind of future they would like, then planning actions to achieve that state of affairs. An example of this is someone who would like a pollution free world, then developing or working with organizations to lobby government officials, conduct public relations campaigns to public citizens, etc.

Strategists try to understand the complex dynamics among various variables which interact to form specific scenarios. Strategists aim to develop a plan of action which impact key environmental conditions which in turn force variables to "naturally" have the outcome preferred.

Exercise 3: Preferred Lifestyle. If you could make achievable changes to what you already do with your time and other resources, what could you achieve in the next 5 years? Where could you live? What could you be or do? Who could you be with?

There are different dimensions to explore:

• Technological . These include micro-minature electronics.
  • IDG Report: Charting the New Frontier
• Social One of the concepts in Alvin Toffler's classic book, “Future Shock”, is “High Tech - High Touch”.
• Political "Techological migrant workers"
• Spiritual .